Clash between ruling ‘AAP’, BJP and Congress, eyes fixed on swing voters

There is a fierce contest going on between Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress regarding the assembly elections in Delhi. All three parties are trying to attract women, slum, middle class and youth voters to woo the public. 1.55 crore voters of Delhi will decide who will hold the reins of power in the capital for the next five years. However, the real key to the electoral equations lies with those 15% swing voters, who sometimes go in favor of PM Modi and sometimes in favor of Arvind Kejriwal.

Important role of swing voters

• The results of the last Lok Sabha and Assembly elections show that there is a large section of 15% swing voters in Delhi.
• These voters sometimes press the broom button and sometimes choose the lotus symbol.
• BJP’s challenge is to retain these voters in its fold.
• At the same time, ‘AAP’ is working on a strategy to attract them to its side, as it did in the 2020 assembly elections after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

How has the voting trend been changing?

• 2020 assembly elections:
  • ‘AAP’ got 54% vote share.
  • BJP got 38% vote share.
  • Congress was reduced to only 4% vote share.
• 2019 Lok Sabha elections:
  • More than 54% votes for BJP.
  • 24% votes for you.
  • 19% votes for Congress.

Analysis:
Many voters of Delhi consider Modi better in central politics and prefer AAP’s free schemes in the state.

BJP’s strategy: Trying to stop swing voters

• BJP has been out of power in Delhi for 26 years.
• The party knows that to return to power it is necessary to retain swing voters in its favor.
• BJP issues:
  • Sheeshmahal (alleged extravagance of AAP government).
  • Dirty water and broken roads.
  • Pollution of Yamuna.
• PM Modi’s bet:
  • To woo those who voted for Kejriwal for free schemes, Modi has promised that the BJP government will also continue these schemes.

AAP’s election agenda

• AAP has announced candidates for all 70 seats.
• Kejriwal’s focus:
  • On free electricity, water, education and health.
  • On wooing women and slum voters.
  • Promise of employment and other facilities for the youth and middle class.

Congress challenges

• Congress has so far announced candidates for 48 seats.
• It may be difficult for the party to regain its lost ground.
• Focus:
  • On re-engaging traditional Congress supporters.
  • On making a place for himself in the fight between BJP and AAP.

What does the strategy say?

• If BJP is successful in stopping 10% swing voters, then the election results may go in favor of BJP.
• AAP will try to maintain its 2020 vote share and win back the trust of slums, women and the middle class.