North India Statesman
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New Delhi: According to the report of the Bank of Baroda released on Friday, the Indian economy is expected to grow at a rate of 6.8–7 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 2024-25, with the contribution of the agricultural sector. For the entire financial year, the estimate is estimated at 6.2–6.4 percent, the report states that India’s economy remains in better position than its global counterparts on the basis of strong macroeconomic fundamentals.
According to the report, the growth rate in FY 2026 will remain at the same level of 6.4–6.6 percent, which will have bright possibilities supported by monetary ease, low inflation, strong domestic demand and continuous capital expenditure aided by budgetary incentives.
However, any geopolitical conflict and global tariff impact can adversely affect this optimism, this report shows the report. The report said that Q4Fy25 is expected to increase a strong agricultural growth of 7.7 percent. This will increase much greater than an increase of 0.9 percent recorded in Q4Fy24. This record is based on food production as mentioned in other advance estimates that include estimates of both kharif and rabi crops.
Increase in the fourth quarter, although exceeding the third quarter, was uneven in all areas, some of which recorded a better growth than others. Talking about the industry, the mining sector is expected to record a 1.5 percent increase in the fourth quarter of FY 2025, compared to 0.8 percent in the same period last year.
On the other hand, the increase in manufacturing sector is expected to decrease from 11.3 percent to 1.8 percent in Q4Fy24. This is due to partially adverse base and weak corporate income. Low -profit margin appeared in corporate performances of industries such as iron and steel, capital goods, textiles. The recession was observed despite the softening of commodity prices. The power sector is also expected to grow at 5.5 percent in Q4Fy24 as compared to 8.8 percent.
The construction sector is expected to increase at a solid speed due to improvement in steel and cement production in the fourth quarter. Constant emphasis on government capital expenditure is a good sign for this region.
For services, mixed trends are visible. The marriage season and Mahakumbh are expected to accelerate not only the hospitality region, but also in areas such as transport, logistics, food and beverages. Q4Fy24 in business, hotel and transport sector is expected to increase by 6.2 percent in Q4 by 6.4 percent. GST tax collection is growing at a stable speed. In the same period, the growth of the financial sector (9 percent to 6.6 percent) is expected to grow at a slow pace.
Some speed will be recorded in public administration and defense amid increase in net revenue expenditure. The report about the future scenario states that due to the expectation of favorable monsoon, rural demand is likely to continue in FY 26.
In the coming months, neutral enso conditions are expected to remain (NOAA), which is a good sign for agricultural development. Consumption is also expected to accelerate, as it will get support from high -purpose income between new tax incentives. In addition, in view of low inflation, the continuity of the spontaneity cycle will support development. Low commodity prices are expected to get further support.
The report said, “Based on the above, we hope that the Indian economy will register a growth of 6.4-6.6 percent in FY 26. However, for the global tariff challenges, for the global-emerging outer region, there are also negative risks in these estimates. However, any possible bilateral trade between the US and India will be positive. In addition, any potential bilateral business will be positive. In addition, any repatriation of any subscriber struggle or there Can become a barrier. “
