Is the wind changing in Bihar? Even without JDU, BJP’s ‘strike rate’ is becoming super-hit!

It has always been difficult to say which side the camel of Bihar politics will sit on. It doesn’t take long for friendship and enmity to change here. But the figures of the last few elections are telling such a story that it seems that the ‘script’ of Bihar politics is now changing.

The BJP, which till yesterday used to run in Bihar with the help of the ‘crutch’ of Nitish Kumar’s JDU, has now gradually started ‘running the marathon’ on its own. On the other hand, both Nitish Kumar’s JDU and Lalu Yadav’s RJD seem to be struggling to save their old strongholds.

What does the ‘X-ray’ of data say?

If we ‘X-ray’ the election data from 2014 till now, three big and clear pictures emerge:

1. BJP’s increasing ‘graph’ and super-hit ‘strike rate’

• Since 2014, whether it is Lok Sabha or Assembly elections, BJP Vote share (i.e. total votes received) is continuously increasing,
• The most shocking thing is about BJP ‘strike rate’ (Percentage of seats won out of those contested). Of the seats that BJP contested in the last assembly elections, almost Won 67% seatsIt was much better than both JDU and RJD.
• These figures show that BJP is no longer just an ‘urban’ or ‘upper caste’ party, but its hold is getting stronger in every village and in every section.

2. JDU’s ‘setting sun’

• Nitish Kumar may be the Chief Minister of Bihar, but the graph of his party JDU is continuously going downwards.
• The vote share of the party is also decreasing and the number of seats won is also decreasing. In the last elections, the strike rate of JDU was much lower than that of BJP, which shows that the ‘Nitish factor’ is no longer that strong.

3. RJD: Struggle in its own ‘fortress’

• The strongest fort of Lalu Yadav’s RJD is his ‘M-Y’ (Muslim-Yadav) equation.
• But, the figures show that now RJD is also struggling to keep its traditional vote bank together completely and is not able to come out of it and make inroads into other sections.

The ‘Maha-Muqabala’ of 2025 will be even more interesting
These figures are not just the story of the past, they are also indicative of future politics. On one hand, BJP now seems ready to come into the role of ‘elder brother’ on its own, while on the other hand, JDU and RJD are fighting to save their respective existence.

And now in this fight Prashant Kishore With the entry of another player in the form of ‘Jan Suraj’ party, the 2025 assembly elections are going to be the most interesting and unpredictable contest in the history of Bihar.